The South's largest trading partners were the West, the East, and the Central Empire.
The West, which absorbed twenty percent of Southern exports, was connected by overland routes, and since it also used our side of the sea, that posed no problem.
But to export the remaining volume, the shipping lanes near the Belfort Archipelago were absolutely essential.
"If these lanes are blocked, we expect exports to the Central Empire to become severely constrained."
Lucilla continued her report with her usual detached expression, a document folder tucked under one arm.
"Even if we expand overseas export volume, finding somewhere to fully replace what the Empire accounts for in a short timeframe is... frankly impossible."
"Of course it is. Which means our already precarious economy collapses."
The Empire, too, was clearly looking to keep us in check.
That much was obvious from the fact that they weren't moving to restrain the East's naval blockade maneuvers.
Impose comprehensive economic sanctions on every product, and both sides bleed. The sanctioning party and the sanctioned alike.
You only had to look at China in my previous life on Earth.
Without semiconductors imported from Taiwan, their industry ground to a halt—so for all their bluster about sanctioning Taiwan, they'd ended up restricting nothing but Taiwanese snacks, agricultural goods, and fruit.
If even that reckless China couldn't freely sanction the things that actually mattered to them, what made anyone think they could sweep up every Southern product in a blanket embargo?
There was only one way to explain that kind of willingness: a determination to contain us no matter the cost.
"Is there truly no reaction from the Central Empire?"
"None. They're nominally urging both sides to resolve things through dialogue, but they aren't taking any direct action themselves."
"So they've decided to cut us out entirely."
If it came to that, our losses would be enormous.
The moment sanctions began, the Central Empire would suffer too—but not as badly as one might expect. Fifty years of a broken economy was practically an imperial tradition at this point.
The common people? Had the corrupt nobility ever spared a thought for their lives to begin with?
In the end, we were the ones with the most to lose.
And there was the North to consider as well—running something resembling an industrial revolution, not as fast as us, but steadily modernizing. Foreign powers were doing the same.
*Better to resolve this quickly.*
If the confrontation was inevitable, better to move against the East before the Empire had time to prepare. And before the Empire could even read the situation, end the conflict with a decisive victory.
"Lucilla."
"Yes, Your Grace."
"Go to the judiciary and tell them to accelerate the merger. Any gaps can be patched later—getting the merger done comes first."
People were more susceptible to hollow justifications than one might expect.
I knew perfectly well that rushing the merger this sloppily could produce ugly consequences down the line.
But right now, starting the conflict as quickly as possible was what mattered.
"We'll be able to formally annex the West soon enough anyway."
Once the East was crushed and we held maritime supremacy, even the Crown Prince would have no choice but to acknowledge my influence.
***
March 27th.
As the warmth of spring settled over Albion, the South's capital, relations between the South and every other region had frozen colder than they had ever been.
Despite the East's stern warnings, the judicial merger between the South and the West had been completed.
"From today, the judiciaries of the South and the West become one body, to address the challenges of a new era together."
The judicial merger was the opening shot signaling the merger of administrative systems.
Beginning with the judiciary, each government agency began launching joint South-West departments under the name "Joint Response Agencies."
On the surface, these were equitable bodies serving both regions.
They were horizontally structured cooperative institutions, drawing equal numbers of civil servants at comparable ranks from both territories.
But those who understood the reality said otherwise.
"This is just the South swallowing up the West's administrative apparatus."
On the surface, the West still nominally existed. Externally, this was nothing more than a cooperative effort for the efficient application of new technology.
Which made it impossible to openly resist.
Most objections crumbled before the justification of *doing it for the citizens.*
Edward, the East Duke, was not particularly worried.
"Hmm... so they intend to play it ambiguously, do they?"
South Duke Kayl Leopold had not been foolish enough to simply swallow the West whole. It was nothing like the bumbling display he'd put on at that party ten years ago.
Edward decided to give credit where it was due.
The Kayl of today was not the same idiot as back then.
"But you are not the only one who can afford to be ambiguous."
Sharl Reimonds had lost because he underestimated his opponent.
Edward had no intention of losing so stupidly.
"We shall respond in kind—with our own grey-zone tactics."
So Edward did not immediately impose a naval blockade.
Instead, he sent the South a notice of naval exercises.
[ From April 1st through April 25th, large-scale naval exercises involving ships-of-the-line will be conducted in international waters near Belfort. Transit through the surrounding sea is prohibited during this period. ]
Only twenty-five days—not enough to deliver a decisive blow—but a meaningful warning to the South, which was running a wartime economy.
Edward smiled to himself and murmured.
"Let us watch the South choke."
The waters south of the Belfort Archipelago were international waters. Neither Southern territory nor even Imperial territory.
Blocking such waters under the pretext of exercises was, by any reasonable standard, completely illegitimate.
But before the East's overwhelming naval power, no one was in a position to lodge that protest.
...At least, that was what Edward believed.
***
"So the Eastern bastards are blocking our export routes under the guise of exercises?"
"Yes. For the past two days, every one of our merchant vessels attempting to pass through international waters near the Belfort Archipelago has been turned back. One of our company's sailing ships that tried to force through was subjected to warning fire from naval guns."
"Hmm. Less aggressive than I expected."
Honestly, I'd anticipated an outright naval blockade from the start.
The pressure the East was feeling right now had to be considerable.
Yet Edward had shown a degree of restraint.
*He wants to keep the moral high ground while slowly strangling us.*
It might well be the most rational calculation. Going to war with a legitimate justification was almost always preferable.
But Edward had made one mistake.
He assumed there would be no merchant ships willing to sail straight into a live exercise zone.
"Lucilla. How many steamships over twenty thousand tons can the South freely operate right now?"
"At this very moment..."
She flipped through the document folder briefly, then answered without hesitation.
"Approximately three vessels. If you wish, I can contact the heads of the major companies to recruit additional ones."
"Get it up to nine. Tell them the South Duke's residence will compensate for any losses from taking their ships out of service. We're going to keep pushing them through."
"Pushing them through—where exactly, Your Grace?"
"Into the international waters those bastards are illegally occupying."
If the enemy was blocking international shipping lanes under the pretext of exercises, what was the appropriate response?
The answer to that question had been demonstrated once before, by twenty-first-century America.
"We execute a 'Freedom of Navigation' operation."
The backbone of the East's surface fleet was wooden sailing ships.
And wooden sailing ships could not stop a massive steamship from passing.
Even the most advanced Aegis destroyer of the twenty-first century would be wrecked in a head-on collision with a large merchant vessel. A wooden ship had no chance.
"Tell the captains: group up in threes and drive straight through the middle of the exercise zone."
April 5th.
Three enormous merchant vessels entered the "exercise zone" the East had declared.
At first, the Eastern Navy tried to stop them as usual.
But what appeared this time were twenty-thousand-ton steamships the Eastern Navy had barely ever laid eyes on.
They weren't as heavily armored as warships, naturally—but sheer mass counted for something.
The Eastern sailors, confronted with vessels of that size for the first time, were thrown into confusion.
"What—why is that thing so *big*?"
A wooden warship of barely three thousand tons had no way to block their path. A few orders to alter course and warning shots from muzzle-loading cannons accomplished nothing of consequence.
"It's going to ram us! Get clear!"
In the end, the Eastern sailors could only watch helplessly as the merchant ships sailed through.
April 7th.
Once the business owners concluded that the Eastern Navy couldn't stop the steamships, they began attaching their own merchant vessels to the tail end of the giant steamship convoys.
The Eastern Navy's control had broken down. Forcing their way through the exercise zone under the banner of "freedom of navigation" met with no resistance.
April 10th.
East Duke Edward reinforced the zone with additional fleet units and ordered his men to open fire on any merchant vessel that entered the exercise area—stop them by any means necessary.
April 12th.
One of the Eastern ships-of-the-line inflicted serious damage on a small Southern merchant vessel.
April 15th.
In the stormy predawn darkness, the South's enormous passenger and mail liner RMS Stella Marine collided with a fourth-rate ship-of-the-line that had lost its way in the sudden storm.
The result was catastrophic.
The great steamship's bow cleaved the fragile fourth-rate's hull clean in two, like a knife through tofu.
The moment the liner's crew realized what had happened, they launched rescue operations immediately—but in the brutal conditions of a storm-lashed night sea, most of the Eastern soldiers drowned.
It was the moment the already frozen relationship between the two territories shattered completely.